Defense Has the Final Say
By CHRIS HAVEL
It is up to Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers’ offense to break the NFL’s record for career touchdown passes on Sunday. But it is going to be up to the Packers’ defense to break the Minnesota Vikings’ spirit.
If the Packers are going to remain unbeaten it is going to take a dominant performance by their defense.
Favre is receiving the majority of attention this week, and rightfully so, as he attempts to throw for his 421st career touchdown pass. That would eclipse Dan Marino’s NFL record of 420, and it would be the league’s feel-good story of the weekend.
However, there are several reasons why Favre and the Packers’ passing game probably won’t be enough to knock off the Vikings.
Winning on the road is much more likely if the visiting team can take the fans out of the game. Granted, there will be plenty of Packers fans in the stands at the Metrodome, but the season is young and Vikings fans aren’t about to concede anything.
One way to silence the home crowd is by taking an early lead and then taking the air out of the football by slamming away with an effective running attack. The Packers may be able to score first, but sustaining a ground game is another matter.
NFL offenses pursue balance for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is to protect a lead. The old saying is that an early lead is the most dangerous, and that’s because they are difficult to protect, especially without a running attack.
If the Packers take a first-half lead and they can’t run the ball the clock inside the Metrodome is going to make minutes seem like hours. Unless Favre is incredibly sharp and almost perfect, incomplete passes are going to make the game drag, and potential interceptions are going to give the Vikings hope.
As it stands, there is no reason to think the Packers’ running game will suddenly materialize in the Metrodome. Packers coach Mike McCarthy saw fit to run a shockingly low total of just 11 times against the San Diego Chargers. Some of that was because the Chargers’ weakness on defense is its secondary. But most of that was because the Packers have no rhyme, rhythm or reason in their running attack.
The return of running back Vernand Morency and his fresh legs may help, but it is clear through 19 games that McCarthy’s first, second and third inclination is to pass. Favre threw a career-high 613 passes last season. This year, he is on pace to shatter that. Fans can accept that so long as the Packers keep winning, but the reality is winning without a running attack—especially with a good but not great receiving corps—is a long shot at best.
The Vikings’ strength on defense is stopping the run, so logic suggests Minnesota will do everything it can to force the Packers to run. They may play a lot of nickel and dime defensive personnel, especially early, to invite the Packers to throw it. That puts the pressure squarely on Favre’s shoulders, and in a raucous indoor stadium with inexperienced receivers and running backs, that is a lot of pressure.
If the Packers can’t run, the other way to take home crowds out of a game is with a stifling defense.
In the Packers’ 23-17 victory at Minnesota a year ago, Green Bay’s linebackers dominated Brad Johnson and the Vikings. A.J. Hawk had 17 tackles and a sack, and Brady Poppinga and Nick Barnett forced interceptions and fumbles.
The Packers’ defense had the final say that day while Favre and the offense hit a couple of big plays, ran the ball and protected a lead.
If the Packers are going to run their win-loss record to 4-0 and establish an early stronghold in the NFC North, the hunch here is they are going to have to do it with defense. Favre quite likely will break the career record for touchdown passes—and what a wonderful accomplishment that will be—but it will be up to the Packers’ defense to break the Vikings’ spirit and ultimately carry the day.
Chris Havel is a freelance writer, best-selling author and host of northeast Wisconsin’s top-rated sports radio talk show, Sports Line, heard Monday through Friday from 4 to 6 p.m. on Sports Radio 107.5 FM and 1400 AM THE FAN. He writes a weekly column exclusively for Packers Fan Tours’ Website throughout the 2007 season.
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